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Garliava vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:00

Garliava

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tauras

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.9%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 29.0% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garliava1.4

Tauras1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.67

TAURAS · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Garliava (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tauras (A) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Garliava face Tauras in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garliava a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Tauras 29%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Garliava and 1.0 for Tauras (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garliava are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.22 for Tauras.

Garliava vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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