Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Dainava vs BFA

Dainava vs BFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Dainava

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

BFA

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.5%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-18.3%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.5%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 24.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 56% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava2.3

BFA0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.50

BFA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 55.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

BFA (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face BFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 56% chance, the draw 22% and BFA 22%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dainava and 0.9 for BFA (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.33 for BFA.

Dainava vs BFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - 1 Lyga Predictions