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Be1 NFA vs Hegelmann II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 15:30

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.02 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.0%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.4%1-15.8%1-22.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.3%2-18.4%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-112.3%4+-25.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 84.7% 1.18 -20.0%

Draw 16.7% 16.4% 6.10 +1.1%

Away win 15.5% 9.5% 10.50 +37.6%

Over 2.5 67.1% 73.5% 1.36 -8.7%

Over 3.5 43.0% 52.1% 1.92 -17.4%

BTTS 54.5% 53.2% 1.88 +2.5%

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.3%

#2 3–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Be1 NFA2.9

Hegelmann II0.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.14

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.02 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Be1 NFA (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -20.0%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 6.10 · IMPLIED 16.4% EV +1.1%

Hegelmann II (A) 15.5%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +37.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Be1 NFA face Hegelmann II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Be1 NFA a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Hegelmann II 16%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Be1 NFA and 0.9 for Hegelmann II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Be1 NFA are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.78 for Hegelmann II. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.5%.

Be1 NFA vs Hegelmann II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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