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Tauras vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Tauras

PPG 2.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.0%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 57.8% 1.73 -5.2%

Draw 23.7% 24.4% 4.10 -1.7%

Away win 21.5% 29.4% 3.40 -16.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 62.5% 1.60 -14.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 48.8% 2.05 -32.8%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 51.1% 65.4% 1.53 -21.8%

Away O1.5 27.7% 46.1% 2.17 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tauras1.8

Neptūną Klaipėda0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAURAS · PPG 2.67

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tauras (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -5.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.7%

Neptūną Klaipėda (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tauras face Neptūną Klaipėda in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tauras a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Neptūną Klaipėda 22%, so Tauras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tauras and 0.9 for Neptūną Klaipėda (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tauras are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.89 for Neptūną Klaipėda. This match finished 0-2.

Tauras vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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