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Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Žalgiris II

PPG 1.89 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.2%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-18.9%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-16.5%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-15.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 61.7% 1.62 +3.8%

Draw 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

Away win 14.7% 24.4% 4.10 -23.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 62.5% 1.60 -14.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 41.7% 2.40 -23.7%

BTTS 49.6% 63.7% 1.57 -22.1%

Home O1.5 59.8% 63.3% 1.58 -5.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 36.4% 2.75 -31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žalgiris II2.1

Kauno Žalgiris II0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 1.89

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Žalgiris II (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +3.8%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.4%

Kauno Žalgiris II (A) 14.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žalgiris II face Kauno Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žalgiris II a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Kauno Žalgiris II 15%, so Žalgiris II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Žalgiris II and 0.7 for Kauno Žalgiris II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žalgiris II are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.44 for Kauno Žalgiris II. This match finished 2-1.

Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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