Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Atmosfera vs FA Šiauliai II

Atmosfera vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Atmosfera

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-16.4%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.5%4+-110.1%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.3% 72.5% 1.38 -3.0%

Draw 17.5% 21.1% 4.75 -10.1%

Away win 12.2% 18.2% 5.50 -19.7%

Over 2.5 63.8% 71.4% 1.40 -10.7%

Over 3.5 42.6% 54.9% 1.82 -22.5%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 76.3% 1.31 -17.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 33.3% 3.00 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 70% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atmosfera2.7

FA Šiauliai II0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATMOSFERA · PPG 1.10

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.95 for Home, form 1.10 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atmosfera (H) 70.3%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -3.0%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -10.1%

FA Šiauliai II (A) 12.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atmosfera face FA Šiauliai II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atmosfera a 70% chance, the draw 18% and FA Šiauliai II 12%, so Atmosfera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Atmosfera and 0.8 for FA Šiauliai II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atmosfera are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.11 for FA Šiauliai II. This match finished 1-1.

Atmosfera vs FA Šiauliai II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - 1 Lyga Predictions