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Ekranas vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Ekranas

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Minija

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-110.6%0-213.0%0-310.6%0-4+11.6%1 1-03.0%1-17.3%1-29.0%1-37.3%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.0%2-12.5%2-23.1%2-32.5%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 11.1% 9.00 +13.4%

Draw 17.8% 21.1% 4.75 -9.3%

Away win 68.6% 79.4% 1.26 -13.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

BTTS 50.2% 47.2% 2.12 +6.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob50.2%

A 69% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.0%

#2 0–3 10.6%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekranas0.7

Minija2.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EKRANAS · PPG 0.78

MINIJA · PPG 2.20

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.76 for Away, form 0.78 vs 2.20

Win probability 1X2

Ekranas (H) 13.6%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +13.4%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -9.3%

Minija (A) 68.6%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekranas face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekranas a 14% chance, the draw 18% and Minija 69%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ekranas and 2.4 for Minija (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekranas are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 2.20 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Ekranas vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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