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Sollentuna vs Järfälla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Sollentuna

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Järfälla

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.0%0-28.1%0-33.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 42.9% 2.33 -26.1%

Draw 25.0% 28.2% 3.55 -6.8%

Away win 43.3% 38.5% 2.60 +12.6%

Over 2.5 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

BTTS 54.5% 67.6% 1.48 -19.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 51.3% 1.95 -41.1%

Away O1.5 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sollentuna1.1

Järfälla1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 0.43

JÄRFÄLLA · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sollentuna (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -26.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.8%

Järfälla (A) 43.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sollentuna face Järfälla in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sollentuna a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Järfälla 43%, so Järfälla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sollentuna and 1.5 for Järfälla (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sollentuna are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 1.12 for Järfälla.

Sollentuna vs Järfälla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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