Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Gefle IF vs Umeå FC

Gefle IF vs Umeå FC Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Gefle IF

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Umeå FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.6%0-26.6%0-33.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.1%1-110.6%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.4%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 45.5% 2.20 -27.8%

Draw 24.6% 27.4% 3.65 -6.1%

Away win 42.6% 36.4% 2.75 +17.2%

Over 2.5 59.5% 67.6% 1.48 -11.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

BTTS 61.6% 70.4% 1.42 -12.5%

Home O1.5 43.3% 57.1% 1.75 -24.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.6%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gefle IF1.4

Umeå FC1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GEFLE IF · PPG 1.43

UMEÅ FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gefle IF (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.1%

Umeå FC (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gefle IF face Umeå FC in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gefle IF a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Umeå FC 43%, so Umeå FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gefle IF and 1.7 for Umeå FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gefle IF are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Umeå FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Gefle IF vs Umeå FC Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions