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Assyriska FF vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Assyriska FF

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sollentuna

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.3%0-25.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.3%1-111.8%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 44.4% 2.25 -5.5%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 33.8% 36.4% 2.75 -7.0%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 51.8% 1.93 -12.4%

Away O1.5 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Assyriska FF1.4

Sollentuna1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ASSYRISKA FF · PPG 1.14

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Assyriska FF (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Sollentuna (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Assyriska FF face Sollentuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Assyriska FF a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Sollentuna 34%, so Assyriska FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Assyriska FF and 1.4 for Sollentuna (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Assyriska FF are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.38 for Sollentuna. This match finished 3-0.

Assyriska FF vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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