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IF Karlstad vs Assyriska FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

IF Karlstad

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Assyriska FF

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.2%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-110.9%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 69.0% 1.45 -22.7%

Draw 24.4% 22.2% 4.50 +5.9%

Away win 22.2% 19.2% 5.20 +9.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 69.0% 1.45 -27.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.0%

BTTS 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 71.4% 1.40 -31.1%

Away O1.5 21.1% 33.3% 3.00 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Karlstad1.8

Assyriska FF0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IF KARLSTAD · PPG 2.38

ASSYRISKA FF · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IF Karlstad (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.9%

Assyriska FF (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Karlstad face Assyriska FF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Karlstad a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Assyriska FF 22%, so IF Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IF Karlstad and 0.8 for Assyriska FF (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Karlstad are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Assyriska FF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.3%.

IF Karlstad vs Assyriska FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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