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Järfälla vs IF Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Järfälla

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

IF Karlstad

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-112.7%0-213.0%0-38.9%0-4+7.4%1 1-04.5%1-19.2%1-29.5%1-36.5%1-4+5.4%2 2-01.6%2-13.4%2-23.5%2-32.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 25.3% 3.95 -28.9%

Draw 21.2% 25.3% 3.95 -9.8%

Away win 65.8% 59.5% 1.68 +10.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 64.5% 1.55 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 41.7% 2.40 -11.7%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.7% 2.65 -14.9%

Away O1.5 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob53.1%

A 66% / xG 0.7-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Järfälla0.7

IF Karlstad2.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄRFÄLLA · PPG 0.86

IF KARLSTAD · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.33 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Järfälla (H) 13.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -28.9%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.8%

IF Karlstad (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Järfälla face IF Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Järfälla a 13% chance, the draw 21% and IF Karlstad 66%, so IF Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Järfälla and 2.1 for IF Karlstad (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Järfälla are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.00 for IF Karlstad. This match finished 1-4.

Järfälla vs IF Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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