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Arlanda vs Piteå Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Arlanda

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Piteå

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.4%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.3%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 73.5% 1.36 -23.2%

Draw 22.3% 21.7% 4.60 +1.6%

Away win 21.1% 15.6% 6.40 +21.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 67.6% 1.48 -20.8%

Over 3.5 32.3% 45.5% 2.20 -28.9%

BTTS 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 73.5% 1.36 -24.7%

Away O1.5 20.4% 29.0% 3.45 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda1.9

Piteå0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.88

PITEÅ · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.6%

Piteå (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face Piteå in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Piteå 21%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Arlanda and 0.8 for Piteå (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.00 for Piteå. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Arlanda vs Piteå Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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