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Hammarby Talang vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.1%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.5%1-18.9%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.1%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 75.2% 1.33 -27.7%

Draw 22.4% 20.0% 5.00 +7.2%

Away win 23.2% 14.3% 7.00 +37.4%

Over 2.5 63.6% 70.4% 1.42 -9.7%

Over 3.5 41.0% 48.8% 2.05 -16.0%

BTTS 61.8% 60.6% 1.65 +2.0%

Home O1.5 62.4% 76.9% 1.30 -18.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 28.2% 3.55 +25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.8%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang2.2

FBK Karlstad1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.57

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -27.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.2%

FBK Karlstad (A) 23.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face FBK Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 54% chance, the draw 22% and FBK Karlstad 23%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Hammarby Talang and 1.2 for FBK Karlstad (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.86 for FBK Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Hammarby Talang vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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