Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Karlberg vs Stocksund

Karlberg vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Karlberg

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stocksund

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.7%0-23.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-03.9%1-17.5%1-27.3%1-34.7%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.9%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.6%3-15.1%3-24.9%3-33.2%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.1%4+-24.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 61.7% 1.62 -30.3%

Draw 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Away win 35.0% 24.4% 4.10 +43.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 45.8% 51.8% 1.93 -11.6%

BTTS 63.3% 72.5% 1.38 -12.7%

Home O1.5 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Away O1.5 53.8% 43.5% 2.30 +23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.3%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlberg2.0

Stocksund1.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLBERG · PPG 1.14

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karlberg (H) 43.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Stocksund (A) 35.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +43.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlberg face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlberg a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Stocksund 35%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Karlberg and 1.9 for Stocksund (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlberg are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.57 for Stocksund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +61.2%.

Karlberg vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions