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Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Umeå FC

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.8%0-26.6%0-34.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.3%1-35.9%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 48.8% 2.05 -35.2%

Draw 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Away win 45.6% 34.5% 2.90 +32.2%

Over 2.5 63.8% 70.4% 1.42 -9.4%

Over 3.5 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

BTTS 63.8% 72.5% 1.38 -12.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 60.6% 1.65 -25.1%

Away O1.5 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.8%

A 46% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå FC1.4

AFC Eskilstuna1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ FC · PPG 1.14

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.57

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Umeå FC (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -35.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

AFC Eskilstuna (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå FC face AFC Eskilstuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå FC a 32% chance, the draw 23% and AFC Eskilstuna 46%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Umeå FC and 1.9 for AFC Eskilstuna (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå FC are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.57 for AFC Eskilstuna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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