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AFC Eskilstuna vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hammarby Talang

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+18.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-17.8%0-210.7%0-39.7%0-4+12.7%1 1-02.4%1-16.5%1-28.8%1-38.0%1-4+10.5%2 2-01.0%2-12.7%2-23.6%2-33.3%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-21.0%3-30.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 26.3% 3.80 -28.5%

Draw 16.5% 24.4% 4.10 -19.4%

Away win 69.7% 58.8% 1.70 +18.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 72.5% 1.38 -7.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 51.3% 1.95 -16.2%

BTTS 54.5% 72.5% 1.38 -24.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 44.4% 2.25 -32.0%

Away O1.5 64.9% 69.0% 1.45 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob54.5%

A 70% / xG 0.8-2.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.7%

#2 0–3 9.7%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna0.8

Hammarby Talang2.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.38

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.90 for Away, form 1.38 vs 3.00

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 13.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -28.5%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -19.4%

Hammarby Talang (A) 69.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Hammarby Talang in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 14% chance, the draw 17% and Hammarby Talang 70%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for AFC Eskilstuna and 2.7 for Hammarby Talang (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 3.00 for Hammarby Talang. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.4%.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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