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Vasalund vs Stockholm Internazionale Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Vasalund

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Stockholm Internazionale

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+21.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-17.5%0-29.6%0-38.2%0-4+9.7%1 1-02.8%1-17.3%1-29.3%1-38.0%1-4+9.4%2 2-01.4%2-13.5%2-24.5%2-33.8%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.4%3-11.1%3-21.5%3-31.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 27.4% 3.65 -30.6%

Draw 19.4% 27.4% 3.65 -17.5%

Away win 67.3% 55.6% 1.80 +21.1%

Over 2.5 65.1% 60.6% 1.65 +7.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 38.5% 2.60 +11.8%

BTTS 56.2% 64.5% 1.55 -12.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.7% 2.65 -14.9%

Away O1.5 65.0% 58.8% 1.70 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob56.2%

A 67% / xG 1.0-2.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 0–3 8.2%

#5 1–3 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasalund1.0

Stockholm Internazionale2.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VASALUND · PPG 1.43

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.60 for Away, form 1.43 vs 2.00

Win probability 1X2

Vasalund (H) 13.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -30.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -17.5%

Stockholm Internazionale (A) 67.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasalund face Stockholm Internazionale in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasalund a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Stockholm Internazionale 67%, so Stockholm Internazionale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Vasalund and 2.6 for Stockholm Internazionale (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasalund are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Stockholm Internazionale. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Vasalund vs Stockholm Internazionale Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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