Today / Norway - 1st Division / Stabaek vs Lyn

Stabaek vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Stabaek

PPG 2.57 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Lyn

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.2%1-15.7%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-18.1%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.1%4+-111.1%4+-23.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 71.4% 1.40 +5.0%

Draw 16.6% 20.8% 4.80 -12.2%

Away win 8.4% 17.9% 5.60 -31.8%

Over 2.5 65.6% 76.9% 1.30 -14.7%

Over 3.5 43.9% 55.6% 1.80 -21.0%

BTTS 52.9% 69.4% 1.44 -23.8%

Home O1.5 77.5% 78.1% 1.28 -0.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 37.7% 2.65 -32.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 75% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek2.9

Lyn0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK · PPG 2.57

LYN · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.17 for Home, form 2.57 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +5.0%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -12.2%

Lyn (A) 8.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek face Lyn in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Lyn 8%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Stabaek and 0.7 for Lyn (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.14 for Lyn. This match finished 4-3.

Stabaek vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1st Division Predictions