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Strommen vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Strommen

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ranheim

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.7%0-22.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-02.9%1-16.1%1-26.4%1-34.5%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-27.2%2-35.0%2-4+4.3%3 3-02.4%3-15.1%3-25.4%3-33.8%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.9%4+-25.2%4+-33.6%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Draw 21.4% 26.0% 3.85 -10.6%

Away win 31.3% 38.2% 2.62 -18.0%

Over 2.5 68.1% 78.1% 1.28 -12.8%

Over 3.5 47.5% 58.8% 1.70 -19.3%

BTTS 69.6% 80.0% 1.25 -13.0%

Home O1.5 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Away O1.5 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.6%

H 47% / xG 2.3-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.1%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strommen2.3

Ranheim2.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMMEN · PPG 1.00

RANHEIM · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Strommen (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +3.8%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.6%

Ranheim (A) 31.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strommen face Ranheim in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strommen a 47% chance, the draw 21% and Ranheim 31%, so Strommen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Strommen and 2.1 for Ranheim (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strommen are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Ranheim. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 1-4.

Strommen vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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