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Sogndal vs Bryne Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Sogndal

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bryne

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.2%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.5%1-18.9%1-26.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.6%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.7%4+-23.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 41.7% 2.40 +22.6%

Draw 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.7%

Away win 26.7% 41.7% 2.40 -21.6%

Over 2.5 65.8% 72.5% 1.38 -9.2%

Over 3.5 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

BTTS 64.3% 75.2% 1.33 -14.5%

Home O1.5 61.4% 57.8% 1.73 +6.2%

Away O1.5 43.7% 57.8% 1.73 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal2.1

Bryne1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 1.86

BRYNE · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +22.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

Bryne (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Bryne in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Bryne 27%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sogndal and 1.4 for Bryne (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.12 for Bryne. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Sogndal vs Bryne Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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