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Stromsgodset vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Stromsgodset

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Egersund

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.4%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.9%1-14.6%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.4%2-17.4%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-114.8%4+-28.6%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 73.5% 1.36 -9.4%

Draw 16.6% 20.8% 4.80 -12.2%

Away win 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

Over 2.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

Over 3.5 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

BTTS 64.3% 71.4% 1.40 -10.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 80.0% 1.25 -2.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 39.2% 2.55 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.3%

H 67% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 3–0 6.9%

#4 4–1 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stromsgodset3.2

Egersund1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMSGODSET · PPG 2.50

EGERSUND · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.08 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stromsgodset (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -12.2%

Egersund (A) 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stromsgodset face Egersund in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stromsgodset a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Egersund 17%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Stromsgodset and 1.2 for Egersund (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stromsgodset are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.57 for Egersund. This match finished 0-2.

Stromsgodset vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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