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Junior vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:20

Junior

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Llaneros

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.9%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.3%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 65.8% 1.52 -20.1%

Draw 25.7% 26.3% 3.80 -2.3%

Away win 21.7% 14.8% 6.75 +46.5%

Over 2.5 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Over 3.5 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -23.2%

BTTS 46.1% 50.0% 2.00 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.1%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0✓ 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior1.5

Llaneros0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.63

LLANEROS · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -20.1%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.3%

Llaneros (A) 21.7%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +46.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Llaneros 22%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Junior and 0.9 for Llaneros (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Llaneros. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Junior vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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