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Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Viking

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sarpsborg 08 FF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.9%1-15.9%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-18.4%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-111.2%4+-24.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 74.1% 1.35 -8.7%

Draw 16.8% 19.0% 5.25 -7.1%

Away win 15.6% 13.8% 7.25 +7.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 54.1% 1.85 -18.6%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 71.5% 78.1% 1.28 -8.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 33.3% 3.00 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 2–1✓ 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking2.8

Sarpsborg 08 FF0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING · PPG 3.00

SARPSBORG 08 FF · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.08 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -8.7%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.1%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (A) 15.6%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 16%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Viking and 0.8 for Sarpsborg 08 FF (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. This match finished 2-1.

Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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