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Aalesund vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tromso

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.8%0-26.7%0-33.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.2%1-110.7%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.3%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 27.0% 3.70 +33.2%

Draw 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Away win 40.4% 52.6% 1.90 -23.2%

Over 2.5 62.7% 59.9% 1.67 +4.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 37.7% 2.65 +4.7%

BTTS 62.1% 64.5% 1.55 -3.7%

Home O1.5 38.3% 37.7% 2.65 +1.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 56.5% 1.77 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.1%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund1.4

Tromso1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

TROMSO · PPG 1.83

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +33.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

Tromso (A) 40.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face Tromso in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Tromso 40%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aalesund and 1.7 for Tromso (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Tromso. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.9%.

Aalesund vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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