Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Start vs Fredrikstad

Start vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Start

PPG 0.86 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fredrikstad

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.7%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.9%1-111.9%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.2%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 45.5% 2.20 +1.9%

Draw 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Away win 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 41.7% 2.40 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start1.5

Fredrikstad1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 0.86

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +1.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Fredrikstad (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Fredrikstad 29%, so Start are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Start and 1.2 for Fredrikstad (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Fredrikstad. This match finished 0-1.

Start vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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