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Abha vs Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Abha

PPG 2.36 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jeddah

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-18.7%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.4%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-15.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.4% 82.0% 1.22 -12.9%

Draw 18.5% 19.6% 5.10 -5.7%

Away win 10.1% 7.7% 13.00 +31.3%

Over 2.5 51.4% 63.7% 1.57 -19.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 41.7% 2.40 -29.7%

BTTS 41.3% 47.6% 2.10 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.3%

H 71% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.6%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abha2.1

Jeddah0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ABHA · PPG 2.36

JEDDAH · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.36) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Abha (H) 71.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -12.9%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -5.7%

Jeddah (A) 10.1%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Abha face Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abha a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Jeddah 10%, so Abha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Abha and 0.6 for Jeddah (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abha are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.57 for Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Abha vs Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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