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Harstad vs Skjervøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Harstad

PPG 2.17 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Skjervøy

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.5%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.6%1-12.2%1-21.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.5%2-14.6%2-23.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-16.5%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-016.4%4+-121.6%4+-214.2%4+-36.2%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 8.4% — — —

Over 2.5 80.9% — — —

Over 3.5 63.5% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 75% / xG 4.2-1.3 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.9%

#2 3–1 6.5%

#3 5–1 5.8%

#4 4–0 5.2%

#5 3–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harstad4.2

Skjervøy1.3

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 63.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HARSTAD · PPG 2.17

SKJERVØY · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.92 for Home, form 2.17 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Harstad (H) 75.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Skjervøy (A) 8.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harstad face Skjervøy in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harstad a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Skjervøy 8%, so Harstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Harstad and 1.3 for Skjervøy (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harstad are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.14 for Skjervøy. This match finished 7-0.

Harstad vs Skjervøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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