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Los Angeles FC vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:00

Los Angeles FC

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

SJ Earthquakes

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-040.1%0-112.6%0-22.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.1%1-17.6%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.2%2-12.3%2-20.4%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.4%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 61.3% 1.63 -41.5%

Draw 48.0% 25.3% 3.95 +89.6%

Away win 16.1% 20.4% 4.90 -21.1%

Over 2.5 6.5% 63.7% 1.57 -89.8%

Over 3.5 1.4% 42.6% 2.35 -96.7%

BTTS 12.2% 64.5% 1.55 -81.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob12.2%

H 36% / xG 0.6-0.3 / U2.5 6% / NoBTTS 12%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 40.1%

#2 1–0 24.1%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC0.6

SJ Earthquakes0.3

COMBINED 0.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 6.5% · O3.5 PROB 1.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 3.00

SJ EARTHQUAKES · PPG 3.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (3.00), Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -41.5%

Draw 48.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +89.6%

SJ Earthquakes (A) 16.1%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC face SJ Earthquakes in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 36% chance, the draw 48% and SJ Earthquakes 16%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Los Angeles FC and 0.3 for SJ Earthquakes (0.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 7% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 12% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for SJ Earthquakes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +89.6%. This match finished 1-4.

Los Angeles FC vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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