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Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Djurgardens IF

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.7%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.2%1-18.4%1-25.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.3%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.1%4+-24.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 69.0% 1.45 -22.1%

Draw 22.3% 21.7% 4.60 +1.6%

Away win 24.0% 16.7% 6.00 +26.4%

Over 2.5 64.0% 69.0% 1.45 -7.2%

Over 3.5 42.8% 47.6% 2.10 -10.1%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 72.5% 1.38 -17.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 33.3% 3.00 +9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgardens IF2.3

Vasteras SK FK1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 1.43

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Djurgardens IF (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.6%

Vasteras SK FK (A) 24.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgardens IF face Vasteras SK FK in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgardens IF a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Vasteras SK FK 24%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Djurgardens IF and 1.2 for Vasteras SK FK (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.86 for Vasteras SK FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.6%.

Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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