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IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:30

IFK Goteborg

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kalmar FF

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.4%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.2%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 40.8% 2.45 +13.4%

Draw 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Away win 28.9% 37.0% 2.70 -13.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 44.4% 2.25 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg1.4

Kalmar FF1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 1.14

KALMAR FF · PPG 0.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Kalmar FF (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face Kalmar FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Kalmar FF 29%, so IFK Goteborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for IFK Goteborg and 1.3 for Kalmar FF (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.14 for Kalmar FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 3-2.

IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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