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Halmstad vs Gais Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:30

Halmstad

PPG 0.62 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gais

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 45.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-115.4%0-210.6%0-34.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.7%2-15.1%2-23.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 21.1% 4.75 +12.4%

Draw 28.3% 25.6% 3.90 +6.2%

Away win 46.3% 60.6% 1.65 -23.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Over 3.5 28.5% 31.3% 3.20 -5.3%

BTTS 49.6% 55.6% 1.80 -10.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.2% 3.55 +14.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 57.8% 1.73 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.6%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–2✓ 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halmstad0.8

Gais1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.62

GAIS · PPG 0.71

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Halmstad (H) 25.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +12.4%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.2%

Gais (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halmstad face Gais in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halmstad a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Gais 46%, so Gais are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Halmstad and 1.4 for Gais (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halmstad are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.71 for Gais. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Halmstad vs Gais Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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