Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm

Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Orgryte IS

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

AIK Stockholm

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.8%0-26.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 33.3% 3.00 +6.5%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 40.3% 46.5% 2.15 -13.4%

Over 2.5 56.0% 62.5% 1.60 -10.4%

Over 3.5 33.9% 40.8% 2.45 -16.9%

BTTS 59.9% 67.6% 1.48 -11.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 45.5% 2.20 -17.7%

Away O1.5 48.2% 54.6% 1.83 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orgryte IS1.3

AIK Stockholm1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 1.00

AIK STOCKHOLM · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orgryte IS (H) 35.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +6.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

AIK Stockholm (A) 40.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orgryte IS face AIK Stockholm in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orgryte IS a 36% chance, the draw 24% and AIK Stockholm 40%, so AIK Stockholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Orgryte IS and 1.5 for AIK Stockholm (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.62 for AIK Stockholm. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 3-4.

Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions