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Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Mjallby AIF

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

IF Elfsborg

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.1%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 29.4% 37.7% 2.65 -13.3%

Over 2.5 49.4% 52.4% 1.91 -5.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 37.3% 43.5% 2.30 -14.2%

Away O1.5 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1✓ 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby AIF1.3

IF Elfsborg1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY AIF · PPG 1.17

IF ELFSBORG · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby AIF (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +6.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

IF Elfsborg (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby AIF face IF Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby AIF a 43% chance, the draw 28% and IF Elfsborg 29%, so Mjallby AIF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mjallby AIF and 1.0 for IF Elfsborg (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.29 for IF Elfsborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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