Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Santos Laguna vs Atlas

Santos Laguna vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura · Matchday 15 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:00

Santos Laguna

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atlas

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.6%0-25.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.7%1-110.6%1-28.3%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.4%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.8%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 40.7% 2.46 -5.0%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -17.4%

Away win 37.8% 37.9% 2.64 -0.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 39.1% 35.7% 2.80 +9.5%

BTTS 63.2% 63.7% 1.57 -0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos Laguna1.6

Atlas1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 0.83

ATLAS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Santos Laguna (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -5.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.4%

Atlas (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna face Atlas in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Atlas 38%, so Santos Laguna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Santos Laguna and 1.6 for Atlas (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Santos Laguna vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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