Santos Laguna vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 15 Estadio Corona· Torreon Sunday, April 19, 2026 23:00

Santos Laguna PPG 0.83

0-1 MISS

Atlas PPG 0.67

Over3.5· +9.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna face Atlas in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Atlas 38%, so Santos Laguna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Santos Laguna and 1.6 for Atlas (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.6%

Odds: 2.46 EV: -5.0%

Draw 23.6%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -17.4%

Away 37.8%

Odds: 2.64 EV: -0.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 39.1% Odds: 2.80 +9.5%

BTTS 63.2% Odds: 1.57 -0.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Santos Laguna

1.59

Atlas

1.58

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.67)