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Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:00

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karpaty

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.1%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.1%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.5%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 27.8% 3.60 +53.0%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 33.3% 51.3% 1.95 -35.1%

Over 2.5 61.2% 45.5% 2.20 +34.6%

Over 3.5 37.3% 25.0% 4.00 +49.2%

BTTS 62.1% 52.6% 1.90 +18.0%

Home O1.5 45.9% 29.9% 3.35 +53.8%

Away O1.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kryvbas KR1.6

Karpaty1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.70

KARPATY · PPG 1.52

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kryvbas KR (H) 42.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +53.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Karpaty (A) 33.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kryvbas KR face Karpaty in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kryvbas KR a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Karpaty 33%, so Kryvbas KR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kryvbas KR and 1.5 for Karpaty (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.52 for Karpaty. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +53.8%.

Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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