Today / Costa-Rica - Primera División / Alajuelense vs Saprissa

Alajuelense vs Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 16 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:00

Alajuelense

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Saprissa

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.7%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.4%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 38.2% 2.62 +34.1%

Draw 24.0% 37.7% 2.65 -36.4%

Away win 24.8% 34.5% 2.90 -28.1%

Over 2.5 53.3% 50.0% 2.00 +6.6%

Over 3.5 31.0% 29.9% 3.35 +3.9%

BTTS 54.8% 59.9% 1.67 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.8%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alajuelense1.7

Saprissa1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAJUELENSE · PPG 1.71

SAPRISSA · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Alajuelense (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +34.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -36.4%

Saprissa (A) 24.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alajuelense face Saprissa in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alajuelense a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Saprissa 25%, so Alajuelense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Alajuelense and 1.1 for Saprissa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alajuelense are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.86 for Saprissa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Alajuelense vs Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Costa-Rica - Primera División Predictions