Alajuelense vs Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Costa-Rica - Primera División Clausura - 16 Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto· Alajuela Sunday, April 19, 2026 23:00

Alajuelense PPG 1.71

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Saprissa PPG 1.86

Home· +34.1% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alajuelense face Saprissa in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alajuelense a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Saprissa 25%, so Alajuelense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Alajuelense and 1.1 for Saprissa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alajuelense are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.86 for Saprissa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.2%

Odds: 2.62 EV: +34.1%

Draw 24.0%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -36.4%

Away 24.8%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -28.1%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.3% Odds: 2.00 +6.6%

Over 3.5 31.0% Odds: 3.35 +3.9%

BTTS 54.8% Odds: 1.67 -8.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alajuelense

1.70

Saprissa

1.11

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.5% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.86)