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Liverpool M. vs Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 22:30

Liverpool M.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nacional

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.3%0-23.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.0%1-110.1%1-26.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.8%3-16.1%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.0%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.0%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool M.1.9

Nacional1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL M. · PPG 1.00

NACIONAL · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool M. (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nacional (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool M. face Nacional in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool M. a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Nacional 25%, so Liverpool M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Liverpool M. and 1.3 for Nacional (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool M. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Nacional. This match finished 1-3.

Liverpool M. vs Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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