Liverpool M. vs Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Apertura - 12 Estadio Belvedere· Montevideo Sunday, April 19, 2026 22:30

Liverpool M. PPG 1.00

1-3 MISS

Nacional PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool M. face Nacional in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool M. a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Nacional 25%, so Liverpool M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Liverpool M. and 1.3 for Nacional (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool M. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Nacional. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.3%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 22.4%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 25.3%

Odds: — EV: —

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.3% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 39.0% Odds: — —

BTTS 61.0% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool M.

1.90

Nacional

1.26

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 54%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -42.4%

Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)