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Guangdong Mingtu vs Yichun Grand Tiger Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:30

Guangdong Mingtu

PPG 0.89 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Yichun Grand Tiger

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.6%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.1%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-18.5%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 23.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.8%

Over 2.5 45.1% 36.4% 2.75 +24.0%

Over 3.5 23.9% 23.3% 4.30 +1.7%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 44.6% 2.24 +1.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.0% 4.35 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0✓ 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong Mingtu1.4

Yichun Grand Tiger0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG MINGTU · PPG 0.89

YICHUN GRAND TIGER · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong Mingtu (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Yichun Grand Tiger (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong Mingtu face Yichun Grand Tiger in China - League Two on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong Mingtu a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Yichun Grand Tiger 23%, so Guangdong Mingtu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Guangdong Mingtu and 0.7 for Yichun Grand Tiger (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong Mingtu are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Yichun Grand Tiger. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Guangdong Mingtu vs Yichun Grand Tiger Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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