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Dalian Kewei vs Rizhao Yuqi Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 09:30

Dalian Kewei

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Rizhao Yuqi

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.7%0-18.6%0-21.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.9%1-18.4%1-21.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.1%2-14.1%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.3%3-11.3%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 69.4% 1.44 -26.3%

Draw 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

Away win 16.5% 12.5% 8.00 +19.2%

Over 2.5 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.8%

Over 3.5 12.5% 22.7% 4.40 -27.0%

BTTS 32.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 54.9% 1.82 -41.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% 11.6% 8.60 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob32.8%

H 51% / xG 1.0-0.3 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.7%

#2 1–0 26.9%

#3 2–0 13.1%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Kewei1.0

Rizhao Yuqi0.3

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN KEWEI · PPG 2.33

RIZHAO YUQI · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Kewei (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -26.3%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.6%

Rizhao Yuqi (A) 16.5%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Kewei face Rizhao Yuqi in China - League Two on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Kewei a 51% chance, the draw 32% and Rizhao Yuqi 17%, so Dalian Kewei are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dalian Kewei and 0.3 for Rizhao Yuqi (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Kewei are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.89 for Rizhao Yuqi. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Dalian Kewei vs Rizhao Yuqi Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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