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Changchun Xidu vs Xi'an Ronghai Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 09:00

Changchun Xidu

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Xi'an Ronghai

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-118.6%0-212.3%0-35.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-02.9%2-13.8%2-22.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Draw 28.6% 34.5% 2.90 -10.2%

Away win 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Over 2.5 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.9% 23.5% 4.25 -11.8%

BTTS 45.5% 48.8% 2.05 -6.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 24.1% 4.15 +33.2%

Away O1.5 43.5% 44.6% 2.24 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob45.5%

A 46% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.6%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–2 12.3%

#5 1–2✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Xidu0.6

Xi'an Ronghai1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN XIDU · PPG 1.00

XI'AN RONGHAI · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.68 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Xidu (H) 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.2%

Xi'an Ronghai (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Xidu face Xi'an Ronghai in China - League Two on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Xidu a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Xi'an Ronghai 46%, so Xi'an Ronghai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Changchun Xidu and 1.3 for Xi'an Ronghai (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Xidu are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Xi'an Ronghai. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Changchun Xidu vs Xi'an Ronghai Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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