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Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 22:30

Flamengo

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bahia

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Home 66% chance

Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.6%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.6%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.8%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.7%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 66.2% 1.51 -3.8%

Draw 20.3% 25.0% 4.00 -18.8%

Away win 16.0% 16.0% 6.25 0.0%

Over 2.5 57.7% 54.1% 1.85 +6.8%

Over 3.5 35.3% 32.3% 3.10 +9.4%

BTTS 52.9% 52.6% 1.90 +0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 10.7%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo2.1

Bahia0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.50

BAHIA · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -3.8%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.8%

Bahia (A) 16.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV 0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Bahia 16%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Flamengo and 0.9 for Bahia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.40 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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