Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction & Tips

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Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 12 Estádio do Maracanã· Rio de Janeiro Sunday, April 19, 2026 22:30

Flamengo PPG 2.50

2-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Bahia PPG 2.40

Over3.5· +9.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.7%

Odds: 1.51 EV: -3.8%

Draw 20.3%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -18.8%

Away 16.0%

Odds: 6.25 EV: 0.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.7% Odds: 1.85 +6.8%

Over 3.5 35.3% Odds: 3.10 +9.4%

BTTS 52.9% Odds: 1.90 +0.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✔

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Flamengo

2.07

Bahia

0.93

Model SuggestionHome -3.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -3.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+9.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5/Under 48%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 56% (27 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)