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FBC Melgar vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 22:15

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Universitario

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.7%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 42.7% 2.34 +12.8%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -21.0%

Away win 27.0% 32.8% 3.05 -17.6%

Over 2.5 52.0% 44.4% 2.25 +17.0%

Over 3.5 29.8% 23.8% 4.20 +25.2%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar1.6

Universitario1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.40

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 48.2%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +12.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -21.0%

Universitario (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Universitario 27%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FBC Melgar and 1.1 for Universitario (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.75 for Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 2-1.

FBC Melgar vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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