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Jeju United FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 10:30

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Incheon United

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-115.8%0-29.5%0-33.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.9%1-113.1%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.5%2-15.4%2-23.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.2%3-11.5%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 32.3% 3.10 -6.8%

Draw 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Away win 42.0% 40.8% 2.45 +2.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.0% 2.38 +4.7%

Over 3.5 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

BTTS 48.7% 51.8% 1.93 -6.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 31.3% 3.20 +4.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 37.7% 2.65 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -72.1%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.7%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 15.8%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–0 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju United FC0.8

Incheon United1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.18

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeju United FC (H) 28.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.8%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Incheon United (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju United FC face Incheon United in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju United FC a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Incheon United 42%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Jeju United FC and 1.2 for Incheon United (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju United FC are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.67 for Incheon United. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.6%.

Jeju United FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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