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Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 10:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-15.7%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-110.3%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.6%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-13.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 67.6% 1.48 -17.1%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 21.8% 15.4% 6.50 +25.0%

Over 2.5 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 32.3% 3.10 -0.2%

BTTS 51.7% 52.4% 1.91 -1.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 61.7% 1.62 -20.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -72.1%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen1.8

Gwangju FC0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.50

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -17.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Gwangju FC (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Gwangju FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Gwangju FC 22%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Daejeon Citizen and 0.7 for Gwangju FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Gwangju FC. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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