Treasure Beach vs Mount Pleasant Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Jamaica - Premier League Regular Season - 35 Stadium East· Kingston Sunday, April 19, 2026 20:30

Treasure Beach PPG 1.00

2-2 MISS

Mount Pleasant PPG 1.50

Draw· +13.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Treasure Beach face Mount Pleasant in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treasure Beach a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Mount Pleasant 61%, so Mount Pleasant are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Treasure Beach and 1.5 for Mount Pleasant (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treasure Beach are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Mount Pleasant. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 13.0%

Odds: 7.80 EV: +1.4%

Draw 26.2%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +13.5%

Away 60.8%

Odds: 1.35 EV: -17.9%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 32.2% Odds: 1.80 -42.0%

Over 3.5 14.2% Odds: 3.00 -57.4%

BTTS 31.3% Odds: 2.10 -34.3%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Treasure Beach

0.52

Mount Pleasant

1.47

Model SuggestionAway -17.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -17.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+13.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)