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Treasure Beach vs Mount Pleasant Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 20:30

Treasure Beach

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Mount Pleasant

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-120.0%0-214.8%0-37.3%0-4+3.7%1 1-07.1%1-110.4%1-27.7%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-01.8%2-12.7%2-22.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 12.8% 7.80 +1.4%

Draw 26.2% 23.1% 4.33 +13.5%

Away win 60.8% 74.1% 1.35 -17.9%

Over 2.5 32.2% 55.6% 1.80 -42.0%

Over 3.5 14.2% 33.3% 3.00 -57.4%

BTTS 31.3% 47.6% 2.10 -34.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob31.3%

A 61% / xG 0.5-1.5 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.0%

#2 0–2 14.8%

#3 0–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treasure Beach0.5

Mount Pleasant1.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TREASURE BEACH · PPG 1.00

MOUNT PLEASANT · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Treasure Beach (H) 13.0%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +1.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +13.5%

Mount Pleasant (A) 60.8%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treasure Beach face Mount Pleasant in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treasure Beach a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Mount Pleasant 61%, so Mount Pleasant are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Treasure Beach and 1.5 for Mount Pleasant (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treasure Beach are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Mount Pleasant. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Treasure Beach vs Mount Pleasant Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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