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San Luis vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 22:00

San Luis

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Iquique

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.2%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.5%1-111.1%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.8%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 45.5% 2.20 +19.5%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -25.4%

Away win 22.4% 33.9% 2.95 -33.9%

Over 2.5 53.7% 48.8% 2.05 +10.1%

Over 3.5 31.4% 27.0% 3.70 +16.2%

BTTS 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1✓ 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luis1.8

D. Iquique1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIS · PPG 1.67

D. IQUIQUE · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=54.3%

Win probability 1X2

San Luis (H) 54.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +19.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.4%

D. Iquique (A) 22.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luis face D. Iquique in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luis a 54% chance, the draw 23% and D. Iquique 22%, so San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for San Luis and 1.1 for D. Iquique (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luis are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 2-1.

San Luis vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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