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SM Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 22:00

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-041.4%0-119.7%0-24.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-18.0%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.4%2-11.6%2-20.4%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.5%3-10.2%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 54.1% 1.85 -58.0%

Draw 49.8% 35.1% 2.85 +41.9%

Away win 27.5% 20.8% 4.80 +32.0%

Over 2.5 6.0% 35.1% 2.85 -82.9%

Over 3.5 1.3% — — —

BTTS 12.6% 42.6% 2.35 -70.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob12.6%

D 50% / xG 0.4-0.5 / U2.5 6% / NoBTTS 13%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 41.4%

#2 0–1 19.7%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 0–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Tucuman0.4

Tristan Suarez0.5

COMBINED 0.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 6.0% · O3.5 PROB 1.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.50

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 2.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

SM Tucuman (H) 22.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -58.0%

Draw 49.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +41.9%

Tristan Suarez (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Tucuman face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Tucuman a 23% chance, the draw 50% and Tristan Suarez 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.4 for SM Tucuman and 0.5 for Tristan Suarez (0.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 6% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 13% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Tucuman are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.33 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +41.9%. This match finished 0-0.

SM Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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