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Dandenong Thunder vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 09:00

Dandenong Thunder

PPG 0.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dandenong City

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.1%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 23.8% 4.20 +30.6%

Draw 26.7% 24.4% 4.10 +5.7%

Away win 42.2% 61.7% 1.62 -31.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 67.6% 1.48 -25.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

Away O1.5 48.0% 66.7% 1.50 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong Thunder1.1

Dandenong City1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG THUNDER · PPG 0.82

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong Thunder (H) 31.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +30.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +5.7%

Dandenong City (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong Thunder face Dandenong City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong Thunder a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Dandenong City 42%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dandenong Thunder and 1.5 for Dandenong City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong Thunder are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 0.82 for Dandenong City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.7%.

Dandenong Thunder vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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