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Palmeiras vs Athletico PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 21:30

Palmeiras

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Athletico PR

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Home 67% chance

Model probability 77.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+24.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.2%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.2%1-16.2%1-22.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.0%2-18.7%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-111.3%4+-24.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.6% 62.5% 1.60 +24.2%

Draw 13.6% 26.3% 3.80 -48.3%

Away win 8.8% 18.5% 5.40 -52.5%

Over 2.5 70.9% 51.8% 1.93 +36.8%

Over 3.5 49.9% 29.9% 3.35 +67.2%

BTTS 54.3% 52.6% 1.90 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 78% / xG 2.8-0.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–0✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras2.8

Athletico PR0.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS · PPG 3.00

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

67%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras (H) 77.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +24.2%

Draw 13.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -48.3%

Athletico PR (A) 8.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -52.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras face Athletico PR in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras a 78% chance, the draw 14% and Athletico PR 9%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Palmeiras and 0.9 for Athletico PR (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Athletico PR. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +67.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Palmeiras vs Athletico PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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